Batang Ai by-election – my personal analysis

At first, the Batang Ai by-election was seen as a barometer to test the strength of the ruling BN coalition versus it's rival PR, after the last GE where PR shook the world by taking over 5 states from the ruling coalition.   However, things took a turn with a sudden announcement by a would-be independent candidate, Johnny Anak Chuat to contest in this by-election.   It was said earlier that, both parties have a 50/50 chances of winning.

Batang Ai has been the traditional stronghold of BN, since the PDBS era, where the older folks are still the keen supporters of BN.   The acceptance of locals towards PR is somewhat doubtful, for one reason that it is a West Malaysian based political party, furthermore their performance in Perak and Selangor was not up to expectations.   The younger generations which are more exposed to globalization processes are their most likely voters.   Then there are voters who are neither on the BN or PR side, those who are sitting on the fence, for reason known to themselves.   These are the groups that the independent candidate should take advantage.

Talking about BN candidate, Malcolm Mussen, they seem to play safe by fielding new face which has very limited political backgrounds and fresh records.   What is his chance of winning against political veteran like Jawah Gerang?   There is not so much on the candidate's aura, but their gamble is on their "dacing's" logo plus some "kopi o" from the "generous" government to the opportunists, a little bit of dirty trick and some magic performed by "reliable government crews".

On PKR side, the PR is banking on the popularity and seniority of Jawah Gerang.   I would dare say that, PR decision's on their choice of candidates seems doubtful and inaccurate.    Even though he was the MP for Lubok Antu for the previous five terms, that doesn't guarantees the people's support.   What has he done during his previous terms as MP?   The people are not blind.

Talking about independent candidate, Johnny Anak Chuat, most sees it as an alternative to the present sickening political scenarios, where changes are what people want.   Based on the report in some popular medias, as a local boy from Lamanak, he has all the supports from younger generations who are mostly his relatives.    Another x-factor which maybe of advantage for Johnny is that, he has been doing countless number of charity works and community projects for his kampungs folks during the last few years, which could convince the people of his ability to serve.

In conclusion, I would say that, with the presence of Johnny in this race, the chances of BN winning this game is much better, whereas the PR prospective looks somewhat gloom.    However, we must not underestimate Johnny's ability and strength, given all the favourable factors in favour of him.   Whatever it is, it all depends on the last minute campaigning and efforts that each and every candidates are making.